北太平洋SST的时空分布特征及其与黑潮大弯曲和El—Nino的关系

用EOF分析方法对北太平洋及赤道太平洋地区1949～1979年31年海表面温度距平场进行分解,得到几个主要距平海温模态(EOF1～3),分析了EOF1～3的时空分布特征。得到海温距平场的EOF1和EOF2～3模态分别对E1—Nino事件和黑潮大弯曲有很显著的相关性,指出SST第三模态场对黑潮大弯曲的影响具有很好的持续性,持续时间为1～2年。最后讨论了相互的影响过程,为黑潮大弯曲和E1—Nino事件的预报的可能性提供了依据。

THE SPACE AND TIME CHARACTERISTICS OF SST IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO KUROSHIO MEANDER AND E1-Nino EVENT

The EOF analysis method was used to analyze the anomaly sea surface temperature (SST ) field. The data were selected from COADS in the northern and equatorial Pacific from 1949 to 1979. Several principal anomaly modes (EOF1 - 3) were obtained. The distribution characteristics and the variations of these modes reveal that the EOF1 and EOF2-3 of anomaly SST have a good relationship with the Kuroshio meander and the El - Nino event respectively. Moreover, the third mode has good persistence in affecting the variation of the Kuroshio meander, which has 1-2 year lag. Finally, the possible physical mechanism of the interaction between the SST and the Kuroshio meander and between the SST and the El - Nino event are discussed. The paper provides a possible basis for the tendency forecast of the Kuroshio meander and the El-Nino event.