| 台风灾害极值预测——模式和应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘德辅,谢波涛,庞亮,姜昊,王风清.台风灾害极值预测——模式和应用[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2009,39(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘德辅 谢波涛 庞亮 姜昊 王风清 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学灾害防治研究所,山东,青岛,266003 |
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| 基金项目： | supported by the National Natural Foundation of China(No.50679076);;the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters P.R.of China(No.20060120)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 台风灾害是影响中国2.5亿人民生命财产和经济发展的重大问题。鉴于现行台风防灾减灾领域存在的问题,提出了"多维复合极值分布"理论及相应的"双层嵌套多目标概率模式",并应用于美国卡特列娜飓风巨灾预测和验证、上海设防标准、杭州湾特大超高水位,三峡设计洪水的概率预测及风险分析,显示了新理论的科学性、先进性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风灾害 多维复合极值 概率实测 防护标准 |
Extreme Value Prediction of Typhoon Hazards-Models and Applications |
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| LIU De-Fu,XIE Bo-Tao,PANG Liang,JIANG Hao,WANG Feng-Qing.Extreme Value Prediction of Typhoon Hazards-Models and Applications[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2009,39(5). |
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| Authors: | LIU De-Fu XIE Bo-Tao PANG Liang JIANG Hao WANG Feng-Qing |
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| Institution: | LIU Teh-fu;Disaster Prevention Research Institute;Ocean University of China;Qingdao 266003;China |
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| Abstract: | Typhoon induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing economic development and more than 250 million lives in China.In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction,prevention,and mitigation,this paper proposes a new probability model,Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution(MCEVD),to predict typhoon induced extreme disaster events.Based on the MCEVD the Double layer nested multi-objective probability model established for typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criter... |
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| Keywords: | Typhoon disaster multivariate compound extreme value distribution prediction prevention criteria |
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