1949—2019年登陆中国的热带气旋特征及致灾分析

利用1949—2019年中国台风网资料,对登陆中国的热带气旋进行统计,分析了其主要气候特征及灾害成因。结果表明:近71年来在西北太平洋地区共生成热带气旋2 333个,其中登陆我国的有636个,占生成总数的27.3%;平均每年生成热带气旋33个,在我国登陆的有9个,登陆数量的年际差异明显,最多年份达15个,最少的年份仅为4个,近71年来登陆热带气旋呈逐年减少趋势;按年代统计分析,20世纪50、60年代最多,均为97个; 90年代以后陆续减少,2010年以来达到最低,仅80个; 21世纪以来登陆我国的热带气旋数量虽然下降趋势明显,但活跃时间段在延长:近71年来最早登陆和最晚登陆热带气旋均出现在21世纪;登陆时段趋于集中,高频期出现在7—9月,其中8月份最多,约占全年总数的28.5%;登陆地点趋于集中,首次登陆点集中在广东、海南、台湾地区,其中广东最多,占登陆总数的34.6%;大风、暴雨、风暴潮是热带气旋灾害的主要因子,若遇天文大潮,则潮灾不容忽视。

Characteristics and disaster analysis of tropical cyclones landing in China in 1949-2019

Based on the data Typhoon Online of China, the main climate features and disaster causes of tropical cyclones (TCs) landed in China from 1949 to 2019 were statistically analyzed. The results showed that in the past 71 years, there were 2 333 TCs in the Northwest Pacific, of which 636 had landed in China, accounting for 27.3% of the total. In 33 TCs generated annually there were 9 TCs landed in China. The annual difference of landfall number is obvious. The maximum and the minimum landfalls in a year were 15 and 4 times, respectively. Anyway, the landfalls of TC were decreasing yearly in recent 71 years. In the 1950s and 1960s, there were 97 TC landings at most. A statistical analysis by age showed that the number has decreased gradually since the 1990s, reaching the lowest level, only 80, after 2010. Although the number of TC landings in China had declined significantly since the 21st century, the active period of TCs has prolonged. In the past 71 years, the earliest and the latest landing TCs appeared in the 21st century. The landing period tended to concentrate, and the high frequency period occured from July to September reaching the highest in August accounting for 28.5% of the total. Landing sites tended to concentrate, and the first-landing places concentrated in Guangdong, Hainan and Taiwan. Guangdong was landed the most, accounting for 34.6% of the total landings. Gale, rainstorm and storm surge were the main causes of TC disasters. When encounting the astronomical tide, the tidal disasters can not be ignored.