Rossby波模型对西北太平洋海表面高度年际变异的可预测性研究

根据海洋Rossby波的西传特性, 使用一阶斜压Rossby波模型对北太平洋海表面高度的年际变异进行了回报和预测研究。回报结果表明, Rossby 波模型能够较好地模拟北太平洋海表面高度的年际变异。尤其是黑潮延伸区的下游, 模拟结果与卫星观测的相关系数达到0.8以上。预测结果表明, Rossby 波模型在两个纬向分布的海域有显著的预报能力, 分别位于高纬度中部和副热带环流西部。前者可提前5—6年, 后者可提前2—4年。此外, 重点开展了Rossby波模型在西北太平洋的预报能力研究。结果表明, Rossby波模型对中国的边缘海有着很好的预测能力, 包括南海北部、台湾以东和东海黑潮海域, 分别在提前32、40和52个月时能取得最佳的预测效果。

PREDICTABILITY TO SEA LEVEL INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC BY FIRST-ORDER BAROCLINIC ROSSBY WAVES MODEL

Based on the westward movement nature of oceanic Rossby waves, we applied the first-order baroclinic Rossby waves model to hindcast and forecast the sea level interannual variability in North Pacific Ocean. The hindcast results show that the Rossby wave model can simulate very well the observed sea level anomaly (SLA), especially in the downstream of Kuroshio extension in high correlation coefficient at >0.8 between the hindcast and observed SLAs. The forecast results reveal two zonal areas well presented in the Rossby waves model for predication, i.e., the central high-latitude area and western subtropical gyre in North Pacific, to which the interannual SLA could be predicted in advance by 5-6 and 2-4 years, respectively. Furthermore, the Rossby waves model exhibited good performance in marginal China seas, including the northern South China Sea, area east to the Taiwan, and Kuroshio in the East China Sea, to which the best prediction were achieved for 32, 40 and 52 months in advance, respectively.