河北曹妃甸沿海海平面变化分析

采用回归分析方法,对曹妃甸现有海平面数据与邻近的塘沽沿海相对应的海平面数据进行相关分析,用建立的回归方程及塘沽历史海平面时间序列,推算了曹妃甸历史海平面时间序列,进而分析了曹妃甸海平面变化特征,同时预测了曹妃甸未来海平面可能上升的高度。分析结果表明:曹妃甸沿海海平面1951—2013年呈长期波动上升趋势,变化年速率为3.2mm/a;1980—2013年上升加快,变化年速率为6.6mm/a,高于同期中国沿海海平面的上升速率;20世纪90年代至2013年上升更进一步加快,变化年速率为11.1mm/a。可为曹妃甸沿海城市规划、滨岸工程设计和防灾减灾提供参考。

Analysis on the Sea Level Changes in the Caofeidian Coastal Area of Hebei Province

The correlation analysis is carried out between the existing sea level data in the Caofeidian coastal area and the corresponding data in the adjacent Tanggu coastal area by means of regression analysis and a regression equation is established. By using the regression equation and the historical sea level time series in the Tanggu coastal area, the historical sea level time series in the Caofeidian coastal area is calculated and the characteristics of sea level change in the Caofeidian coastal area are analyzed. The results show that the sea level in the Caofeidian coastal area showed an undulated rising trend from 1951 to 2013, with an annual change rate of 3.2 mm/a. From 1980 to 2013 the sea-level rising accelerated and the annual change rate was 6.6 mm/a, which was higher than the rates of sea-level rising in the coastal areas of China during the same period. From the 1990s to 2013 and the sea-level rising accelerated further and the annual change rate reached to 11.1 mm/a. The possible height of the future sea level rising in the Caofeidian coastal area is predicted, which can provide a reference for city planning, coastal engineering design and disaster prevention and mitigation in the Caofeidian coastal area.