南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址适宜性研究

为分析南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性,在广泛研究备选区特征资料的基础上,基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)原理,以自然环境因素、开发环境因素、基础设施与投资情况以及其他因素作为一级评判准则,建立了包括12项二级评判准则的递进层次结构模型,并以永兴岛、赵述岛和晋卿岛作为3个假定备选区,来验证分析评价模型的有效性和可靠性。AHP评判结果显示,3个备选区的整体优劣指数依次为0.587 1, 0.212 1, 0.200 8;AHP模型的一致性比例CR值为0.020 3。通过分析和筛选影响远海油气勘探保障建设的选址因子,构建基于AHP原理的选址评价模型,可用于分析评价南海北部岛礁油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性。

Suitability of the Sites Selected for Oil and Gas Exploration Support Construction in Northern South China Sea

In order to analyze and evaluate the suitability of the sites selected for oil and gas exploration support construction in Northern South China Sea, a progressive hierarchical structure model which includes 12 second-level evaluation criteria is established based on the principle of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the extensive studies of the characteristics of candidate areas and by taking the factors such as natural environment, development environment, infrastructure and investment, and so on as the first-level evaluation criteria. The validity and reliability of this model are then verified by using the Yongxing Island, the Zhaoshu Island and the Jinqing Island as candidate areas. The results from the AHP analysis have showed that the overall advantage and disadvantage indexes of the three candidate areas are 0.587 1, 0.212 1 and 0.200 8 respectively and the consistency ratio CR of the AHP model is 0.020 3. It is therefore concluded that the model established based on the principle of AHP and by analyzing and screening the site selection factors affecting the oil and gas exploration support constructions in the offshore areas can be used to evaluate quantitatively the suitability of the sites selected for the oil and gas exploration support constructions in Northern South China Sea.