地球系统10~(-1)年变化原因概述

我们曾论述了地球系统100～108年变化的原因1]， 唯对10-1年（月一年）的地球系统变化未指出其变化原因。经过近年的研究， 现在可以明确地指出， 地球内部有两类流体： 地外核和岩石圈裂隙中地下流体（地气）的活动是引发10-1年地球系统变化的原因。外核的上升运动会使其上部岩石圈产生上抬和压缩， 在地表层就出现3.2 m地温升高和降水减少的“干热异常”， 经过“孕震三步曲”最终引发构造地震。外核的下降运动会使其上部岩石圈产生下沉和拉张作用， 地表层表现为3.2 m地温降低， 同时降水增多的“湿冷异常”, 最终可导致发生陷落地震。外核的脉冲运动是引发岩石圈中形成地热（冷）涡的“源”。地气环流也是旋转地球上的一种流体运动， 其特征速度（地下风速）约为0.2 m/s， 据此可推得“自然气候周期”约为8个月。地气环流是使地气系统得以“流”的动力源。地热（冷）涡的“源”、 “流”相结合是使短期气候呈现纷繁复杂变化的原因。

On the Causes of the Earth System Variations at the Time Scale of 10~(-1)a

The causes of the earth system variations at the time scale of 10~0～10~8a have been systematically studied in our previous studies except for that at 10~(-1)a. In this paper,we propose that the driving force for the latter is the underground fluids (gases in the earth) widely distributed in the outer layer of the earth core and the crust. The ascending movement in the outer layer of the earth core will cause the uplifting and compressing effects in the crust. As a result,an increased soil temperature field at 3.2 m and a decreased precipitation field are founded,which is regarded as the precursor of the tectonic earthquake. On the contrary,the descending movements in the outer layer of the earth core will cause the sinking and expending effects in the crust followed by an decreased soil temperature field at 3.2 m and an increased precipitation field,which is thought of as the reason for the "subsiding earthquake". The impulse from the outer layer of the earth core is the driving force of the geothermal vortex in the crust. As a kind of flowing fluid on the rotating earth,the characteristic movement of the underground fluid is about 0.2 m/s,corresponding to a "natural climate period" of 8 months or so. The underground circulation is the driving force of the earth-atmosphere system. The reason for the high complexity and uncertainty of the short-term climate change is that it is comprehensively influenced by the geothermal vortex and the underground circulation.