WRF-RUC在2014年江西汛期降水预报中的检验分析

利用江西省92个国家气象观测站雨量资料,对2014年汛期江西WRF-RUC系统的降水预报进行逐6 h、12 h和24 h晴雨检验、降水分级检验以及同期区域暴雨个例检验分析。结果表明:1)6 h、12 h、24 h晴雨检验PC评分分别达0.6、0.7、0.8,系统表现了稳定的预报性能。2)系统对小雨、中雨和大雨具有较好的预报能力,对局地暴雨、大暴雨的预报能力较弱,而对区域暴雨的预报具参考意义。3)系统有效地缩短了spin-up时间,系统在积分6 h后达到最佳预报性能,并在起报后6—12 h时段,预报效果最佳。4)系统对降水范围以及小雨、中雨、大雨过度预报,对暴雨、大暴雨范围预报比较合理。

Precipitation Numerical Validation of Jiangxi WRF-Rapid Update Cycle Forecast System During the Flood Season in 2014

To understand the performances of precipitation forecast（every 6 h, 12 h and 24 h） of Jiangxi WRF-Rapid Update Cycle （WRF -RUC） forecast system, the operational forecast results were verified and evaluated by objective verification method compared with the observation data from the 92 rainfall station during the flood season of 2014. Some encouraged conclusions were given as follows. Firstly, WRF-RUC system presented stable forecast performance. The PC scores of sunny/rainy validation with every 6 h, 12 h and 24 h were 0.6, 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. Secondly, the verification scores of precipitation forecast showed that the system had the good forecast ability for light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain, while it had weak forecast ability for local rainstorm. The system could provide better forecast reference for the regional rainstorm. Thirdly, the system efficiently shortened the time of spin -up so that it could achieve the best precipitation -predict performance after 6 h model integration. Fourthly, the system tended to over-predict the range of light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain, while it had reasonable forecast range of rainstorm.