广义极值分布理论在重现期计算的应用

在气候统计学上，常用Weibull、Gumbel、Frechet统计分布函数对极端气候要素的分布进行拟合，广义极值分布理论综合了以上三种极值分布模型，在气候分析中得到了广泛应用。以南昌市年汛期日最大降水量为例，利用广义极值分布理论对其分布进行拟合，并对重现值及其置信区间进行计算，为气候要素极值的统计分析提供了一种新的手段。

Application of Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Theory in Calculating Return Periods

In the climate statistics, statistical distribution functions, such as Weibull, Gumbel and Frechet, are commonly used to fit the distribution of extreme climate elements, the generalized extreme value distribution theory has been applied widely in climatic analyses by synthesizing the above three extreme value distribution models. In this paper, the generalized extreme value distribution theory is used to fit the Nanchang maximum daily precipitation distribution, and the return period values and confidence intervals are calculated, which provides a new statistical method to analyze climatic element extremes.