2013年国外重大台风灾害分析与启示

2013年第30号台风"海燕"是有气象记录以来西北太平洋和中国南海区域登陆强度最强的台风,造成菲律宾至少8 085人死亡或失踪;特强气旋风暴"费林"是1999年以来登陆印度的最强热带气旋,仅造成奥里萨邦38人死亡。分析两个登陆的强台风灾害和造成的损失,探讨当事国应急处置的差距所在,发现"海燕"台风强度超强、菲律宾政府部门应对措施不力、公众防御超级台风灾害意识不强、防御极端灾害能力不足是损失惨重的主要原因。"费林"风暴气象预报准确、印度政府措施有力、灾害管理体系有效是此次台风灾害造成伤亡较轻的主要原因。我国作为台风灾害频发的国家,须继续完善政府主导、部门联动的灾害管理体系,适当提高沿海地区防灾减灾工程标准,同时加强公众防御极端台风灾害的能力,必要时政府仍需采取强制撤离措施,防止重大台风灾害的发生。

Analysis and Enlightenment of the Overseas Important Typhoon Disaster in 2013

In 2013,a total of 31 numbered tropical cyclones（TC）have generated over the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea,among which nine of the TCs have landed in China. The typhoon activities in this year show several characteristics：1） The total number as well as the landed number of TCs is abnormally large;2）The intensity of landed TC is strong;3）The landing site concentrates in the southern China;4） And the disaster losses are severe. The TC meteorological service for decision-making in2013 is analyzed in the following. Definite landing prediction of＂Usagi＂has been provided 5 days in advance,but has demonstrated a large difference with the real situation. The effectiveness of typhoon meteorological services for＂Trami＂,＂Usagi＂and＂Fitow＂are well,because the exact landing site and intensity predictions have been provided 2 days in advance. As the most powerful typhoon landing the mainland in October since 1949,the＂Fitow＂typhoon meteorological service was carried out quickly and effectively,the decision-making service was initiated early,the warning information was released with high frequency,the emergency response departments joint action timely,governments at all levels made effective prevention,and the induced personal casualty and effect on society appeared much lighter than those by previous similar typhoons.