鄱阳湖流域气候变化事实研究

基于江西79个气象站1961-2010年逐日气温和降水观测资料，采用滑动t检验和Mann-kendell法对鄱阳湖流域年平均气温进行突变检验分析，利用线性回归方法分别对鄱阳湖流域气温、降水量、降水日数、降水强度等要素的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：（1）1961-2010年鄱阳湖流域年平均气温为18.0℃，升温趋势明显，升温率达0.16℃/（10 a），在1996年出现显著突变。冬季升温趋势最明显，夏季气温虽呈上升趋势，但不显著。（2）流域平均年降水量为1643 mm，呈略增多趋势。20世纪60-80年代和21世纪00年代降水量偏少，90年代降水量相对偏多。最大年降水量出现在1975年，为2149.6 mm；最小年降水量出现在1963年，为1111.6 mm。（3）流域年降水日数总体呈现下降趋势，下降率约为6.9 d/（10 a）。其中，小雨日数下降最为显著，下降率约为7.1 d/（10 a）；中雨日数呈略下降趋势；大雨和暴雨日数呈现略增加趋势。（4）流域年降水强度总体呈现上升趋势，每10 a上升约0.52 mm/d，说明流域降水集中度增大，强降水事件增多。

Facts of Climate Change in Poyang Lake Basin

Based on 1961-2010 daily temperature and precipitation observed data of the 79 weather stations around Poyang Lake basin, Mann-Kendell and moving t-test methods are used to test the mutation of annual average temperature, and the method of linear regression is employed to analyze the change tendencies of the air temperature, precipitation, rainy days and precipitation intensity. The results show： （1） The annual average temperature was 18.0 ℃, which presented an increasing tendency during 1961-2010, with the warming rate of 0.16 ℃/（10 a）. The most obvious increasing tendency occurred in winter. （2） The annual average precipitation was 1 643 mm, with a slight rising trend around the basin. Less precipitation occurred in 1960-1980 and in 2000s, while more precipitation happened in 1990s. The maximum annual precipitation was 2 149.6 mm, which occurred in 1975;and the minimum annual precipitation was 1 111.6 mm, which occurred in 1963. （3） The annual rainy days presented a decreasing trend with 6.9 d/（10 a） decreasing rate. （4） The annual precipitation intensity presented an increasing trend, with the rising rate of 0.52 mm/d per decade, which meant that heavy precipitation events presented an increase tendency in this region.