江西山洪灾害分布特征与预报初探

分析了1954-2004年江西山洪灾害资料和山洪发生地同期历史降水资料，发现江西山洪灾害的发生存在5个方面的特点：一是发生频率高．且20世纪60-90年代发生频率存在增高的趋势；二是季节性明显，与月降水量的分布十分吻合，6月份发生最多；三是南部、中部明显多于北部，山区多于平原，赣南东部发生最多，赣北平原为少发区；四是在北部与连续性暴雨关系密切；五是西风带锋面型是山洪灾害发生的主要天气形势。另外，利用24h降水量和前10d累计雨量作为预报因子，结合判别分析法进行预报分析，力图寻找出江西山洪灾害的预报模式。

The Mountain Torrents Calamity Of Jiangxi Is Distributed The Characteristic And Forecast Preliminary Studies

Analyze the mountain torrents calamity materials of Jiangxi and histor ical precipitation materials of the same period from 1954 to 2004. Then find 5 c haracteristics of various fields have existed in the emergence of the mountain t orrents calamity of Jiangxi: One, take place frequency to be high, and the trend of increasing from 60's to 90's. Second, seasonality is obvious. It is very ide ntical with the distribution of the monthly precipitation and most in June. Thir d, in the south and the middle part it obviously exceeds in the north and it in the plain exceeds in the mountain area. It takes place most in the east of south Jiangxi and little in the plain in north Jiangxi. Fourth, in the north it has c lose relationship with continuous torrential rain. Fifth, the sharp point of the west wind belt is the main weather situation that takes place in mountain torre nts calamity. In addition we utilize 24h precipitation and former 10d rainfall a s factor of predicting and combine differentiating and analytic approach predict so that we try to find the prediction mode of Jiangxi for mountain torrents of calamity.