江西省双季稻气象灾害风险评估研究

利用GIS技术,分析了江西省14个代表台站1956—2012年气候资料,并根据江西省双季稻生长发育对气候条件的要求,对影响江西省双季稻的3个主要农业气象灾害(小满寒、高温逼熟、寒露风)指标进行风险评估。结果表明,江西省早稻主要受小满寒和高温逼熟影响,晚稻主要受寒露风影响。小满寒灾害的高风险区主要包括修水、宜春、景德镇、玉山和广昌等地,高温逼熟灾害的高风险区主要包括赣州、遂川、广昌、吉安、贵溪、玉山和修水等地,寒露风灾害的高风险区主要包括修水和宜春。江西省早稻气象灾害中度风险等级区分布于江西省平原和盆地,重度风险等级区大体分布于周围山地丘陵地区。晚稻气象灾害重度风险区主要位于西南部地区。

Study on the Meteorological Risk Assessment of Double Cropping Rice in Jiangxi Province

Basing on GIS technology, the 1956-2012 climate data of 14 representative stations in Jiangxi province were analyzed.According to the requirement of climate conditions on double cropping rice growth in Jiangxi, risk assessment of the three main agricultural meteorological disaster indexes（grain buds cold, high temperature disaster, cold dew wind） were carried out. The results showed that the early rice was mainly affected by the grain buds cold disaster and high temperature disaster, while late rice was mainly affected by the cold dew wind. The meteorological disaster high risk zone of grain buds cold mainly includes Xiushui,Yichun, Jingdezhen, Yushan and Guangchang etc., the high temperature disasters high risk area mainly include Ganzhou,Suichuan, Guangchang, Ji′ an, Guixi, Yushan and Xiushui etc., and the high risk region of cold dew wind disasters includes Xiushui and Yichun. The moderate meteorological disasters risk zone of early rice located in plain and basin, and the severe level of risk zone can be distributed in hilly mountain areas. Late rice meteorological disasters severe risk area mainly located in the southwest of Jiangxi province.