| DERF产品在江西汛期降水预测中的释用 |
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| 引用本文： | 马锋敏,张传江,张超美,刘晓晖.DERF产品在江西汛期降水预测中的释用[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(2):14-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马锋敏 张传江 张超美 刘晓晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江西省气候中心,江西,南昌,330046
2. 江西省气象局,江西,南昌,330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(编号:GY200906015) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用T63月动力延伸预报DERF模式输出的北半球500hPa位势高度场资料和江西省83站逐月降水量实况资料,运用EOF迭代方法对江西省2005-2009年汛期4-6月逐月降水距平百分率进行解释应用预测试验.结果表明,预测模型对江西汛期降水趋势预测的评估效果比较好.月降水距平百分率的预测Ps评分总体平均为72%,平均距平...
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| 关 键 词： | MDERF产品 降水 EOF 预测 |
APPLICATION OF DERF PRODUCTS TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION IN RAINING SEASONS OF JIANGXI BASED ON EOF ITERATION METHOD |
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| Ma Fengmin,Zhang Chuanjiang,Zhang Chaomei,Liu Xiaohui.APPLICATION OF DERF PRODUCTS TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION IN RAINING SEASONS OF JIANGXI BASED ON EOF ITERATION METHOD[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2011,34(2):14-18. |
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| Authors: | Ma Fengmin Zhang Chuanjiang Zhang Chaomei Liu Xiaohui |
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| Institution: | Ma Fengmin1,Zhang Chuanjiang1,Zhang Chaomei1,Liu Xiaohui2 1.Jiangxi Climatic Center,Nanchang 330046,China 2.Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau,China |
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| Abstract: | Based on Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） iteration method,the 500 hPa geopotential height fields from the products of monthly dynamic extended-range forecast（DERF） of China National Climate Center and the rainfall data from the 83 stations in Jiangxi are analyzed to experimentally predict the precipitation for the period of April—June of 2005—2009.The results show that the trend prediction scores of precipitation are high,the total average Ps scores of anomaly percentage of monthly precipitation prediction is 72%,and the average anomaly correlation coefficient（Acc） is 0.02. |
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| Keywords: | Monthly dynamic extended-range forecast EOF iteration Raining season Precipitation prediction |
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