郑州市汛期FSFE02、FSFE03降水预报效果检验

利用2000－2001年6－9月份日本数值预报产品，郑州市降水实况资料及同期天气图，对日本数值预报产品在郑州市汛期天气预报中的应用效果进行了检验。结果表明；用FSFE02，FSFE03作郑州市24h汛期降水预报效果最好的是晴雨预报；各月预报能力有差异；空报率高于漏报率。在500hPa为偏南气流的条件下，该数值产品的预报效率较高；对于两层均为偏北气流及高层低槽中空西北气流的天气系统配置预报效率也较高；若中高层均为低槽，则预报效率最低。

The Effective Test of FSFE02 and FSFE03 in Zhengzhou Flood Precipitation Forecast

By using Japan NWP products from June to September between 2000-2001, the real-time precipitation data of Zhengzhou and the same time weather chart,we tested the product's effect in flood season precipitation forecast. Results indicate: it forecasts the clear-rain best, its monthly change is obvious and not regular, NH(Not hit) is more than PO(Point over). If it is south wind at 500hPa, the product's forecast accuracy is higher, If it is north wind at 500hPa and 700hPa or it is low troupe at 500hPa and it is northwest wind at 700hPa, the effect is good too. If it is troupe at 500hPa and 700hPa, the effect is worst.