ENSO对全球及中国农业气象灾害和粮食产量影响研究进展

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是全球性年际气候变率的主导模式，ENSO通过影响全球的大气环流，对全球许多地区的气温、降水和由气温、降水异常导致的农业气象灾害（如低温冷害、旱涝灾害等）及农作物生长发育、产量形成产生影响。综述前人对ENSO影响研究进展，所得主要结论如下：1）从全球范围来看，厄尔尼诺年，全球气温偏高，陆地平均年降水量减少；拉尼娜年，全球气温偏低，陆地平均年降水量增加；不同季节和不同类型EN-S0对全球气温和降水的影响有差异。在中国，厄尔尼诺年，大部分地区冬春季气温偏高，夏秋季气温偏低，拉尼娜年，大部分地区冬春季气温偏低，夏秋季气温偏高，不同年代下ENSO对我国气温的影响有所变化；厄尔尼诺年，全国降水以偏少为主，且ENSO对我国不同地区降水的影响与ENSO类型、发展阶段和发生年代有关。2）厄尔尼诺年，我国北方大部分地区初霜冻偏早，吉林延迟型冷害增加，黑龙江低温冷害多发，华北和西北地区易发生干旱；拉尼娜年，我国北方大部分地区初霜冻偏晚，西北地区易发生洪涝。气候变暖背景下，厄尔尼诺与东北低温的关系更为复杂。ENSO循环的不同阶段会影响我国旱涝的地区分布。3）厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年，全球水稻、小麦和玉米均以减产为主，不同国家和地区影响各异。其中，厄尔尼诺年，美国、巴西和阿根廷玉米产量增加，中国和津巴布韦玉米产量降低，印度小麦和水稻及菲律宾、印度尼西亚的雨季水稻均减产；拉尼娜年，美国、巴西和阿根廷玉米减产，印度小麦和水稻增产。在中国，厄尔尼诺对水稻和小麦产量的影响程度与当地灌溉条件有关。以上结论可为我国防御低温冷害、干旱等农业气象灾害，保障粮食安全，制定科学政策提供理论参考。

Advances on Effect of ENSO on Agro-meteorological Disasters and Crop Yields of the World and China

E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is the leading mode of global inter-annual climate variability. ENSO influences the global atmospheric circulation, and then affects the local temperature, precipitation and agro-meteorological disasters such as cool injury, drought and flood due to the anoma- lous temperature and precipitation. ENSO also affect crop growth and yield formation. Based on the pre- vious research about the effects of ENSO on climate and agriculture, we get the following main results. 1 ） In E1 Nino years, the global temperature anomalies are positive, and the annual precipitation anoma- lies are negative. While in La Nina years, the opposite situation occurs. The effect of ENSO on global temperature and precipitation varies with the seasons and the ENSO types. In the most of China, the tem- perature of winter and spring in E1 Nino years is higher than that in normal years, while temperature of summer and autumn in E1 Nino years is lower than that in normal years. In La Nina years, it＇ s the oppo- site. There is some change on the influence of ENSO to temperature under different ages. In E1 Nino years, the precipitation is mostly less than that in normal years. In addition, the effect of ENSO on pre- cipitation in China is related to ENSO types, stages, and the occurring time. 2） The first spring frost dates in the most of northern China are earlier in E1 Nino years and later in La Nina years, compared with that in the normal years. E1 Nino events have increased the probability of cool injury in Heilongjiang province and delayed the cool injury in Jilin province. Nevertheless, the relationship between E1 Nino and cool injury in Northeast China becomes more uncertain under the background of climate warming. More droughts are detected in North China and Northwest China in E1 Nino years, and more floods are detected in Northwest China in La Nina years. The influence of ENSO on droughts and floods varies with the ENSO stages. 3） As other research have pointed out that, E1 Nino and La Nina h