云南高原山地机场强对流短临预报系统研究

基于天气雷达、地面和探空观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、FNL 数值预报产品，应用强对流天气分类识别技术和短时临近预报技术，开展风暴临近预报、强对流天气分类预警、基于数值预报的强风暴潜势诊断等研究，获得大理、丽江、西双版纳等高原山地机场及周边区域强降水、雷暴、大风、冰雹等灾害性天气的0～2h实时定量预报产品和0～12h强对流天气潜势预报产品，建立可业务运行的机场强对流天气短时临近预报系统。通过检验，证明该预报系统有较好的强对流天气预报预警能力，满足机场业务需求。

Study on the Short-term and Impending Forecast System of Severe Convection in Mountainous Airport of Yunnan Plateau

Based on weather radar, ground and sounding data, NCEP reanalysis data, FNL Numerical forecast products, the classification and identification technology of severe convective weather and short-term near forecast technology is adopted to carry out the research on storm approaching forecast, severe convective weather classification early warning, and severe storm potential diagnosis based on numerical prediction, to obtain 0-2 hours real-time determination of severe precipitation, thunderstorm, gale, hail and other disastrous weather in Dali, Lijiang, Xishuangbanna and other plateau mountain areas and surrounding areas. The forecast products and 0-12 hour severe convective weather potential forecast products are used to establish the operational airport short-term severe convective weather prediction system. Through the test, it is proved that the forecast system has good forecast and early warning ability of severe convective weather, which can meet the operational requirements of the airport.