铜仁市暴雨局地性、同步性和相关性研究

通过贵州省铜仁市10个国家级地面气象观测站2007-2021年逐日降水资料统计分析发现：（1）铜仁市暴雨天气过程的局地性非常突出，大暴雨以上天气过程单站率占70.4%，暴雨以上天气过程单站率为50%，研究时长内没有查询到10个国家级台站同日出现暴雨的案例。（2）铜仁市暴雨天气过程同步性总体较差，有95.6%的台站暴雨以上同步率小于50%。（3）台站间年度暴雨日数相关性总体不明显，仅有22.2%（6.7%）能通过0.05（0.01）显著性检验。（4）发生暴雨以上天气过程时，站间雨量相关性也不够理想，有64.4%（60%）能通过0.05（0.01）显著性检验，其中西部思南和印江之间相关性最好，大暴雨天气过程相关系数达到0.8550，暴雨以上天气过程雨量相关系数达到0.7908；东部碧江和万山之间相关性最好，发生大暴雨以上天气过程时雨量相关系数为0.6067，发生暴雨以上天气过程时相关系数为0.5772，可供复杂地形下精细化预报参考。

A study on locality, synchronicity and correlation of heavy rain in Tongren City

Through statistical analysis of daily precipitation data of 10 national ground meteorological observation stations in Tongren City, Guizhou Province from 2007 to 2021, it is found that: (1) the locality of the rainstorm weather process in Tongren is very prominent. The single station rate of the weather process above heavy rain accounts for 70.4%, and the single station rate of the weather process above heavy rain is 50%. During the study period, no rainstorm cases occurred in 10 national stations on the same day were found. (2) The synchrony of rainstorm weather process in Tongren was generally poor, and 95.6% of the stations had synchrony rate of rainstorm above less than 50%. (3) The correlation between the annual number of heavy rain days among the stations was generally not obvious, and only 22.2% (6.7%) could pass the significance test of 0.05 (0.01). (4) When the weather process above heavy rain occurred, the rainfall correlation between stations was also not ideal, and 64.4% (60%) could pass the significance test of 0.05 (0.01). Among them, the correlation between Sinan and Yinjiang River in western China was the best, and the correlation coefficient of heavy rain weather process reached 0.8550, and the rainfall correlation coefficient of weather process above heavy rain reached 0.7908. The correlation between Bijiang and Wanshan in the east is the best. The correlation coefficient of rainfall is 0.6067 when the weather process above heavy rain occurs, and 0.5772 when the weather process above heavy rain occurs, which can be used as a reference for fine prediction under complex terrain.