极端异常气象资料的综合性质量控制与分析

在传统的气象资料质量控制技术中,通常利用统计方法设置控制界限,对于界限以外的资料作为可疑值被标注或作为错误值而被剔除。文中以中国1971~2000年700多基准基本站中,气温极端事件———青海托托河站1985年10月~1986年3月的极端异常月平均气温为例,介绍了极端异常气象资料的综合性质量控制方法。通过综合性质量控制与分析,即参考Metadata、邻近站检验、不同观测项目间的一致性检查,均证明托托河站1985年10月~1986年3月极端异常月平均气温资料是正确的。从而说明,利用界限控制检查出的所谓错误资料,虽然在统计学意义上很难出现,但是它有可能反映了异常极端的天气气候事件,是正确的。因此,对于极端异常的气象资料,应进一步通过综合性质量控制,分析该资料正确与否,从而保留极端天气气候事件的事实。文中最后介绍了中国1971~2000年700多基准基本站极端异常月平均气温资料的综合性质量检查结果。

COMPLEX QUALITY CONTROL AND ANALYSIS OF EXTREMELY ABNORMAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA

In the traditional quality control of meteorological data,it is using statistical method to set up control threshold limit.The data regarded as suspect data is usually labeled or regarded as gross data to be deleted if it is outside the controlled threshold.The monthly mean air temperature data of Tuotuo River Station in Qinghai province from October 1985 to March 1986 is the most extremely abnormal one of base stations from 1971 to 2000 in China.As an illustration,complex quality control and analysis method of extremely abnormal meteorological data is presented which perhaps reflects extreme weather event or extreme climate event.By utilizing complex quality control method,namely consulting Metadata,surrounding stations tests and consistency checks between various observational programs,the extreme monthly mean air temperature data of Tuotuo River Station from October 1985 to March 1986 is proved to be correct.It reflects the extreme climate event.Thereby,it can be conclude that the so-called gross data outside the controlled area perhaps reflects extremely abnormal weather or climate event and is probably correct,though it can hardly come forth according to statistical probability.So the more advanced analysis to extremely abnormal meteorological data should be carried out by complex quality control method in order to retain the fact of extreme weather or climate event.In the end,it is presented the complex quality control results about the extremely abnormal monthly mean air temperature data of base stations in China from 1971 to 2000.