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| 基于偏最小二乘回归理论的西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计预报方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 宋金杰,王元,陈佩燕,陈联寿.基于偏最小二乘回归理论的西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计预报方法[J].气象学报,2011,69(5):745-756. |
| 作者姓名： | 宋金杰 王元 陈佩燕 陈联寿 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京大学大气科学学院,中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京,210093 2. 中国气象局上海台风研究所,中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室,上海,200030 3. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40830958、40730948、90715031); 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(973)课题(2009CB421502、2004CB418301); 2005年博士点专项科研基金(20050284035); 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2005081); 国家气象中心“天气要素精细预报业务系统建设与改进项目”; 上海台风研究所开放课题(2008ST08) |
| 摘 要： | 热带气旋(TC)的强度预报是TC研究中的前沿性问题和实际业务中的难点.当前具有参考价值的预报方法主要是统计类或模式释用类方法,例如气候持续性(CLIPER)模型等.CLIPER模型的核心技术为多元线性回归,这种回归算法在预报因子之间存在多重相关性时会丧失建模的稳健性,进而影响CLIPER模型的预报精度.为了提高CLIP... |
| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 偏最小二乘回归 强度预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/7/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/10/13 0:00:00 |
A statistical prediction scheme of tropical cyclone intensity over the western North Pacific based on the partial least square regression |
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| SONG Jinjie,WANG Yuan,CHEN Peiyan and CHEN Lianshou.A statistical prediction scheme of tropical cyclone intensity over the western North Pacific based on the partial least square regression[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2011,69(5):745-756. | |
| Authors: | SONG Jinjie WANG Yuan CHEN Peiyan and CHEN Lianshou |
| Institution: | SONG Jinjie1 WANG Yuan1 CHEN Peiyan2 CHEN Lianshou31.Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing210093,China 2.Shanghai Typhoon Institute,Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique,CMA,Shanghai 200030,China 3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing100081,China |
| Abstract: | Tropical cyclone(TC) track forecast errors have decreased considerably over the past several decades while there have been only modest intensity forecasting improvements,despite that the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is an important and difficult task for not only scientists but also operational forecasters.In recent years,the best guidance of forecasting TC future intensity is the approach based on the statistical or statistical-dynamical models,such as the CLIPER(Climatology and Persistence) mo... |
| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone Partial least square regression Intensity forecasting |
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