近九十年吉林省松辽平原作物生长季气温变化的小波分析

利用功率谱、小波分析及突变分析方法分析了以长春站为代表的吉林省松辽平原作物生长季（５～９月）平均气温近９０ａ的变化，结果表明其存在３ａ左右的甚低频振荡，１５ａ和６０ａ左右两个主要长周期振荡，从本世纪２０年代初期到５０年代初期处于暖阶段，从５０年代初期到７０年代末期为冷阶段，从７０年代末期至９０年代中期又处于暖阶段内。预计现在所处的暖阶段将持续到２０１０年左右。由突变分析结果表明，吉林省松辽平原作物生长季平均气温具有明显的阶段性变化，其各冷暖阶段同小波分析的结果具有很好的一致性，在作物生长季内月平均气温的变化有突变发生。在近期气温变化呈上升趋势。

THE WAVELET ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS OF SONG-LIAO PLAIN IN CROP GROWTH PERIOD

The temperature variations in crop growth period of the last 90 years at Chang chun Station were analysed by means of power spectrum,wavelets and abrupt change methods.The result shows that there are the VLF oscillation about 3 years,long period about 15 years and 60 years.In Song-Liao Plain,from the early 1920's,to the early 1950's,it was a warm period,from the early 1950's to the end of 1970's,it was a cold period,since the end of 1970's,it is a warm period again.The warm period at present will persistent to about 2010's year.The periodic variation of the temperature was discovered with abrupt change method.The cold or warm periods are the same as the results of the wavelet analysis.In crop growth period the abrupt change were taken place.At present temperatuer has a rising tendency.