| 基于多状态Markov链模式的极端降水模拟试验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 丁裕国,张金铃,江志红.基于多状态Markov链模式的极端降水模拟试验[J].气象学报,2009,67(1):20-27. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 丁裕国 张金铃 江志红 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学,江苏省气象灾害重点实验室,210044 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 文中建立了基于多状态一阶Markov链的逐日降水量随机模式式结合广义帕雷托分布(GPD)产生夏季逐日极端降水量的模拟资料,结果所显示的各种气候特征表明,绝大多数站点(尤其是中国东部多雨地区)都达到较高的精度.分析表明,该模式对中国东部极端降水特征的模拟能力在某些方面优于两状态一阶Markov链模式.对东部6个代表站模拟试验结果表明,月降水均方差、日降水极大值、月半均降水日数、日降水均方差、日平均降水量等指标与实况比较,均证明该模式对逐日降水量的模拟效果较好,基本模拟出降水量的各种特征.对中同东部78个代表站采用的两种模式模拟结果对比发现,除日平均降水量以外,月半均降水日数、日降水平均极大值都与实际观测结果较为一致,总体上优于两状态模式,说明用该模式在全国范围内模拟逐日降水特征尤其是极端降水特征有较高的町行性.例如,由其中6个代表站模拟资料所拟合的极端降水GPD模式具有较高的拟合优度.无论从门限值或重现期值来看都可发现模拟与实测结果有较好的相似性,且两者门限值的误差越小,重现期极值的差距也越小.证明Markov链模式对极端降水的模拟有广泛的适用性.
|
| 关 键 词： | 极端降水量 模拟试验 Markov链 广义Pareto分布模式 |
The simulation experiments of extreme rainfall based on a multi status Markov
chain model over east region of China. |
| |
| DING Yuguo,ZHANG Jinling and JIANG Zhihong.The simulation experiments of extreme rainfall based on a multi status Markov
chain model over east region of China.[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,67(1):20-27. |
| |
| Authors: | DING Yuguo ZHANG Jinling and JIANG Zhihong |
| |
| Institution: | DING Yuguo ZHANG Jinling JIANG Zhihong Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorogical Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China |
| |
| Abstract: | A multi-status Markov chain model is proposed to simulate daily rainfalls records and the extreme rainfalls in summer are fitted from the simulated daily rainfall records by using a Generalization Pareto Distribution(GPD) model.The research results show that this statistical simulation method display most good dependability and the statistic climatic features from the simulated daily rainfall records have reached more high precision for most stations,specially the pluvial region over east area of China.The ... |
| |
| Keywords: | Extreme precipitation Simulation test Markov chain Generalization Pareto Distribution model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
