Kalman滤波技术在台风路径动力-统计预报中的应用

本文从台风移动的动力学模式出发,讨论了目前台风路径动力—统计预报中所存在的问题,提出了改进的措施,探讨了kalman滤波器的实现方案,并分析了在采用kalman最佳线性递推滤波方法作实际预报时对误差计算的处理方法,从而对台风路径的动力—统计预报作了改进。通过较多独立样本的检验,表明了台风路径动力—统计预报的kalman滤波方法,能够修正台风路径预报的速度和方向,因此具有实际的应用价值。

KALMAN FILTERING METHOD IN THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS

In this paper, we have discussed the problems in predicting the typhoon track using a dynamical-statistical model. We have adopted the Kalman filter, and have discussed the error estimation in the dynamical-statistical prediction by using the Kalman filter. It is found that by using the Kalman filler in the dynamical-statistical prediction model we can improve the prediction of the typhoon track (both in direction and speed),and that it is useful in operational forecasting pratice.