湖北省粮食生产中主要农业气象灾害变化分析

使用1960年12月至2005年2月湖北省71个县(市)气象站常规气象资料,根据农业气象学原理和农业气象指标,统计、整合出对该省双季早稻、双季晚稻、一季中稻、小麦这四种主要粮食作物生产有影响的主要农业气象灾害。通过计算气候倾向率,对9类13种农业气象灾害进行了分析研究。结果表明:有6种农业气象灾害呈增加趋势,有7种呈减少趋势;冬季冻害、小麦赤霉病和盛夏冷害等三种农业气象灾害变化较为明显;任何一种农业气象灾害的气候倾向率呈减少趋势,并不意味着这种趋势变化对粮食生产就绝对有利,反之亦然。

Analysis on Variation of Main Agrometeorological Disasters in Crop Production in Hubei Province

By using meteorology data of 71 weather stations in Hubei province from December in l960 to February in 2005 and according to the principles and index of agrometeorology,main agrometeorological disasters which affect four major grain crops(early rice,late rice,middle-season rice and wheat) of Hubei province is pointed out.Through calculating climate inclination rate,agrometeorological disasters classified into 9 categories and l3 kinds are analyzed and researched.As a result,6 kinds of disasters incline to increase while 7 kinds incline to decrease;there is relatively obvious variation on freezing injury,wheat scab and cool damage in summer;but the reduction of climate inclination rate of any agrometeorological disaster doesn't predicate a positive effect to the crop production,and vice versa.