湖北省咸宁市台风低压暴雨预报方法初探

分析2003～2006年在我国登陆的21个台风的低压移动路径及与之相对应的地面及高空实况资料表明：湖北省咸宁市台风（含热带风暴）低压暴雨的出现与台风登陆区域及登陆后低压的移动路径和强度密切相关,当在闽、浙登陆的台风低压经江西到达咸宁市或江西西北部和湖南省境内,并且有较强风场相配合时,咸宁市才有可能出现暴雨。欧洲中心850 hPa 24～48 h风场预报与台风低压演变的风场基本吻合,可以作为咸宁市台风低压暴雨预报的依据。

The Typhoon Depression Rainstorm Forecasts in Xianning of Hubei Province

Based on the general stations data of 21 typhoon events in China from 2003 to 2006, typhoon moving paths and the observations were analyzed that the heavy rain caused by the typhoon, including Tropical Storm over Xianning in Huhei Province closely relate with the hitting region, the moving path and intensity of low-pressure storm. Landing in Zhejiang or Fujian Province, passing Jiangxi Province to Xianning City or the northwest of Jiangxi and Hunan Province, and matching with the strong wind, the typhoon depression could lead to the rainstorm occurring in Xianning. The 24-48 hours at 850hPa winds forecast of European Centre agreed with the typhoon depression wind field to be used to predict the typhoon depression rainstorm.