赣江流域水位预报模式初步研究

利用赣江流域2004～2006年4～7月气象测站的实测雨量资料,计算得到流域上、中、下流域段的面雨量,以面雨量为初值场,再利用最小二乘法原理求解方程,建立了赣江流域水位预报模式;并通过对2003年5～7月(4月份缺资料,5～7月部分资料残缺)水位预报模拟试验进行检验。结果表明:模拟值能反映出赣江流域上、中、下游的水位突变趋势,与实况值变化趋势较吻合,对防汛决策服务有一定的参考意义。

Preliminary Study on Water Level Prediction Modei in Ganjiang River Valley

Area rainfalls in Ganjiang reaches were calculated with its observations during 4-7 months,2004-2006 yr,and Ganjiang reaches Hydrological prediction model was built,and equations are solved through least square method principle with the area rainfall as an initial field.Moreover,based on simulating the real situation during May-July,2003,the model's evaluation is done.It is shown that: the simulated result is in accordance with the actual ones and can describe the mutation trends of the upper-,mid-and lower-valley of Ganjiang River,which provide useful reference for anti-flood decision-making service with a certain reference.