长江上游流域数值预报产品评价分析

使用宜昌市气象局研制的数值预报产品评价分析和客观订正系统,对ECMWF、T213L31模式分别进行预报误差分析和降水主要影响系统预报能力分析。结果表明:ECMWF模式总体误差水平好于T213L31模式,T213L31模式24 h的总体误差水平接近ECMWF 72 h预报;ECMWF、T213L31对影响长江上游流域暴雨的主要天气系统有不同的预报能力,使用宜昌市气象局所研制的订正系统可从一定程度上改善模式预报的输出结果。

Forecasting Quality Evaluation and Objective Calibration of Numerical Weather Forecasting Products for Rainfall Forecast of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

Using the forecasting quality evaluation and objective calibration system of Numerical Weather Forecasting Products developed by Yichang Meteorological Bureau,the forecasting error and the forecasting quality of ECMWF and of T213L31 are respectively analyzed.The results indicate that the forecasting error of ECMWF model is less than that of T213L31 model and the error degree of 24 h forecasting of T213L31 is close to that of 72 h forecasting of ECMWF model.T213 model and ECMWF model show different performance of prediction on the systems of the rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Moreover,it is proved that the forecasting quality of NWP can be improved by the objective calibration system.