Seasonal Prediction of Spring Dust Weather Frequency in Beijing |
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Authors: | Xianmei Lang |
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Institution: | LANG Xianmei International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 |
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Abstract: | In this paper, seasonal prediction of spring dust weather frequency (DWF) in Beijing during 1982–2008 has been performed.
First, correlation analyses are conducted to identify antecedent climate signals during last winter that are statistically
significantly related to spring DWF in Beijing. Then, a seasonal prediction model of spring DWF in Beijing is established
through multivariate linear regression analysis, in which the systematic error between the result of original prediction model
and the observation, averaged over the last 10 years, is corrected. In addition, it is found that climate signals occurring
synchronously with spring dust weather, particularly meridional wind at 850 hPa over western Mongolian Plateau, are also linked
closely to spring DWF in Beijing. As such, statistical and dynamic prediction approaches should be combined to include these
synchronous predictors into the prediction model in the real-time operational prediction, so as to further improve the prediction
accuracy of spring DWF in Beijing, even over North China. However, realizing such a prediction idea in practice depends essentially
on the ability of climate models in predicting key climate signals associated with spring DWF in Beijing. |
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Keywords: | spring dust weather frequency in Beijing prediction model systematic error climate model |
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