台风集合预报研究进展

台风数值预报是防台减灾的关键，而集合预报是体现和减少数值预报不确定性的常用方法。本文对近年来台风集合预报方法的研究进展进行了梳理和总结，涉及初值集合扰动、模式扰动技术以及基于统计的台风集合预报后处理技术。对全球几个主要集合预报系统的发展及我国的区域台风集合预报系统做了回顾。最后，在回顾的基础上，讨论和提出了关于台风集合预报仍存在的问题及未来可能的研究方向。

Review on the research progress of typhoon ensemble forecast

Typhoon activities and the relevant severe weather lead to disastrous loss of life and property in coastal cities of China.Numerical prediction of typhoons is the key to typhoon disaster mitigation and prevention.Ensemble prediction is a feasible method to quantify and reduce the uncertainty of numerical weather forecasts.This paper summarizes the research progress of typhoon ensemble forecasting in recent years, including the initial ensemble perturbation and the model perturbation schemes and statistical ensemble forecast post-processing techniques.Next, the developments of the main global and regional ensemble forecast systems worldwide for typhoons, including the advancements in China, are reviewed.Finally, based on the review, the remaining problems and possible research directions for typhoon ensemble forecasting are proposed and discussed.