基于风险矩阵的重大活动气象风险评估

基于风险矩阵理论，初步建立了重大活动气象风险评估方法与流程，并以北京某重大庆祝活动服务为例，在多部门联合共同确定活动期间气象风险源的基础上，利用长时间序列气象资料及短期测风雷达观测资料，分析了庆祝活动期间各类气象风险的可能性，结合对活动可能造成后果的严重程度，利用风险矩阵开展了气象风险评估及风险控制研究。评估结果表明，庆祝活动期间主要气象风险依次为降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾-霾、夜晚大风、高温、雷电、低温等7类。其中，降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾-霾为高风险，夜晚大风为中风险，其余均为低风险，根据评估结果建立的风险控制原则和具体措施成功应用于庆祝活动风险控制中。与现有气象业务服务中天气风险评估相比，本研究实现了重大活动气象风险评估由仅考虑高影响天气出现概率向基于影响的风险评估的转变。

Meteorological risk assessment of major activities based on risk matrix

In this study, based on risk matrix theory, the meteorological risk assessment method and process of major activities were established.Taking one major celebration event held in Beijing as an example, the meteorological risk sources during the activities were determined by multiple departments.Using the meteorological data of long-term series and observation data of short-term wind radar, probability analysis of the meteorological risk during the activities was performed.Considering the serious consequences for the activities caused by the meteorological risks, the meteorological risk assessment and risk control research were carried out using the risk matrix.The results show that the main meteorological risks during the major activity were precipitation or cloudy day, daytime high wind, fog and haze, night high wind, high temperature, thunder and lightning, and low temperature.Precipitation or cloudy day, daytime gale, fog and haze are high risks, while night gale is moderate risk, and the remainder are low risks.Finally, the risk control principles and detailed measures were proposed according to the evaluation results, and were successfully applied during the celebration of the major activity.Compared with the weather risk assessment in the existing meteorological business services, this study achieved the transformation from considering the occurrence probability of high impact weather to risk assessment based on impact to major activities.