海洋对大气反馈的研究进展及其诊断方法讨论

回顾了近10 a海洋对大气反馈作用的研究进展,讨论待解决的一个关键问题——怎样在观测研究中有效分离不同海区对大气异常的独立贡献.一般常用方法为利用线性回归或偏相关方法扣除外来主要干扰因子(事先已知),但该方法对解决外来未知海区影响有很大的局限性.广义平衡反馈分析方法(generalized equilibrium feedback assessment,GEFA)可以避免传统方法受未知海区影响的困扰,自动把各海区对大气异常的单独贡献分离出来.它的有效性在简单模式和观测分析中得到了初步验证.GEFA为提高海洋对大气反馈作用的认识提供了一种简单有效的统计工具.

Recent advances in researches of ocean feedback to atmosphere and discussion of its diagnosis method

This paper reviews the research progress of ocean feedback to atmosphere in recent 10 years.Some main issues are addressed for further study,such as how to separate individual ocean influence on atmosphere anomaly in the observational researches effectively.Traditionally,the linear regression or partial correlation method is used to filter out the main interference factor.However,the method is valid only at the condition where we know the factor in prior,e.g.the ENSO signal is removed before assessing the ocean feedback in the mid-latitude.How about the other remote influence from the unknown ocean? A new method,the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment(GEFA),is used to separate each contribution of the individual ocean forcing automatically,without any prefiltering.Its validity is preliminarily proved in a simple thermal model and observations.Therefore,GEFA provides a useful tool for assessing the ocean feedback to the atmosphere.