数值模式对强台风“菲特”登陆期间预报能力评述

基于自动站观测和ECMWF再分析资料,针对中国气象局上海台风研究所区域高分辨率台风模式(Shanghai Tropical Cyclone High Resolution Analysis and Prediction System,STI-THRAPS)和业务常用的4个数值模式,即欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,EC)全球模式,美国全球预报系统(The Global Forecast System,GFS),日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)全球模式和我国T639(T639L60)全球模式,对1323号台风"菲特"登陆过程的预报性能进行了综合检验评估。结果显示:对暴雨以上的强降水预报STI-THRAPS有明显优势。仅有该模式对超过500 mm的极端降水做出预报,且各项评分均好于全球模式,漏报率也明显优于其他模式。对暴雨以下的降水预报各个模式差距不大。美国GFS和STI-THRAPS较好地预报了大风区,STI-THRAPS预报的风场与实况的空间相关程度最高。从漏报率上来看,STI-THRAPS模式的风场预报具有明显优势。虽然预报最大风速偏大,但是STI-THRAPS在24 h后的路径预报有较大优势。

The NWP models' evaluation of landfall processes of the strong typhoon Fitow

Based on the observation data and the ECMWF reanalysis data,the forecast products made by STI-THRAPS (Shanghai Tropical cyclone High resolution Analysis and Prediction System) and other four models,ECMWF/EC(European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts),GFS(The Global Forecast System),JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency) and T639(TL639L60 Global Model),are verified and assessed by statistic method for typhoon Fitow.The results show that the STI-THRAPS has significant advantages for the prediction of torrential rain and severe rain.The score of STI-THRAPS is better than other models.There is little difference between each two models of the prediction from light rain to heavy rain.GFS and STI-THRAPS have made a good prediction for the wind area.The special related degree of wind filed between STI-THRAPS and observation is the most optimal.Besides that,STI-THRAPS has significant advantages in false alarm ratio and false negative ratio.The STI-THRAPS model is the best at the prediction of the track after 24 h,but the center pressure and the maximum wind speed are higher than observation.