| 次季节-季节尺度热带气旋活动研究和预测技术进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 金蕊,余晖,吴志伟,汤杰.次季节-季节尺度热带气旋活动研究和预测技术进展[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(1):238-254. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金蕊 余晖 吴志伟 汤杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030;复旦大学大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院,上海200433;中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030;中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,上海200030;复旦大学大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院,上海200433 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部重点研发计划国际合作专项（2017YFE0107700）；上海市科学技术委员会科研计划项目（19dz1200101）；上海市气象局台风科技创新团队 |
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| 摘 要： | 从外部强迫和大气内部变率两个方面回顾次季节-季节尺度西北太平洋热带气旋活动的主要影响因子及相关机制研究进展,分析统计、动力及混合动力-统计混合3类预测技术的发展历史和现状,对该领域尚未解决的主要科学问题及预测技术发展趋势进行了探讨。
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| 关 键 词： | 次季节-季节尺度 西北太平洋 热带气旋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/10/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/11/29 0:00:00 |
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific: a review |
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| JIN Rui,YU Hui,WU Zhiwei,TANG Jie.Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific: a review[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(1):238-254. |
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| Authors: | JIN Rui YU Hui WU Zhiwei TANG Jie |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China,Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;Key Laboratory of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China and Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;Key Laboratory of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the external forcing factors and internal variabilities which impact the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (WNPTC) on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale were reviewed,along with the associated mechanisms.Additionally,the developing history and current situation were summarized for the prediction techniques,including statistical,dynamical and hybrid statistical-dynamical approaches.Also discussed were several scientific issues which require further research,as well as the future trends of prediction technique development. |
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| Keywords: | sub-seasonal to seasonal Western North Pacific tropical cyclone |
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