| 2010年AREM、GRAPES模式预报性能对比检验分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 卢萍,肖玉华.2010年AREM、GRAPES模式预报性能对比检验分析[J].四川气象,2011(3):8-12. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 卢萍 肖玉华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所;四川省气象台; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 川气课题2010-青年-08 |
| |
| 摘 要： | AREM和GRAPES都是四川省气象局的准业务模式,本文通过检验分析发现：两个模式对四川地区夏季降水的评分值都不理想。两个模式模拟低涡系统皆偏弱,直接导致其模拟的风场辐合偏弱,水汽辐合偏小,降水强度偏弱。两个模式预报的四川盆地上空的比湿都偏小,反映局地水汽对降水的贡献偏多,而外部水汽的输送偏弱。尤其是AREM模式对中低层水汽含量的调整非常显著,容易导致其后24小时降水预报的失败。另外,通过与探空资料的比较结果显示：GRAPES模式在250hPa以上层的模拟结果存在明显的误差,对整个高度场的模拟都存在一个系统偏大。
|
| 关 键 词： | 检验 西南低涡 探空资料 |
Prediction Capability Verification of AREM and GRAPES Models in 2010 |
| |
| LU Ping,XIAO Yuhua.Prediction Capability Verification of AREM and GRAPES Models in 2010[J].Journal of Sichuan Meteorology,2011(3):8-12. |
| |
| Authors: | LU Ping XIAO Yuhua |
| |
| Institution: | LU Ping1,XIAO Yuhua2(1.Institute of Plateau Meteorology,CMA,Chengdu,610072,2.Sichuan Meteorology Observatory,610072) |
| |
| Abstract: | AREM and GRAPES are served as quasi-operational models in Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Bureau.Verification of their performance in 2010 showed that they all got dissatisfactory Ts scales in rainfall prediction.More inspection and analysis revealed that the both models predicted low vortex systems,such as Southwest Vortex weaker in intensity compared with the observation,resulting directly in a lessened rainfall prediction as well as a decreased wind and vapor convergence.Also,the two models predicted l... |
| |
| Keywords: | verification southwest vortex sounding data |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
