| 分县降水概率指导预报业务系统及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 戴有学,薛双青,等.分县降水概率指导预报业务系统及其应用[J].山西气象,2001(3):3-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 戴有学 薛双青 |
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| 作者单位： | 戴有学（临汾市气象局,山西,临汾,041000）;薛双青（临汾市气象局,山西,临汾,041000）;秦爱民（临汾市气象局,山西,临汾,041000）;吕爱丽（临汾市气象局,山西,临汾,041000）;夏冬临（临汾市气象局,山西,临汾,041000） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以T106数值预报产品为基础，应用相似天气下概率最大法制作降水概率预报，然后根据其它数值预报指导产品，最新天然资料、卫星云图和预报员主观经验知识等订正概率值为思路，建立起我市分县降水概率指导预报业务系统，并运用B、Bs和Bias评分法对其进行评价。
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| 关 键 词： | 分县 降水概率预报 数值预报 T106产品 天气资料 卫星云图 相似天气下概率最大法 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2001)03-0003-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月10日 |
Precipitation probability guidance forecast operational system for each county and its application |
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| Dai Youxue,Xue Shuangqing,Qing Aim ing,Liu Aili,Xia Dunling.Precipitation probability guidance forecast operational system for each county and its application[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2001(3):3-6. |
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| Authors: | Dai Youxue Xue Shuangqing Qing Aim ing Liu Aili Xia Dunling |
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| Abstract: | The paper produced precipitation pr obability forecast by using maximum method of probability under similar weather e vents on the basis of NWP products,an d then set up precipitation probability guidance forecast operational system according to the train of thought that used other NWP products,the newest weather data,satellite imaginary and weatherp ersons' subjective expe-rience and knowledge to revise probability value,and it' s evaluated by means of B,Bs and Bias assessing methods. |
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| Keywords: | each county precipitation probability forecast system |
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