山西省强对流天气的气候统计特征及潜势预报

从现代短期、短时临近天气预报出发，计算部分因子在有强对流天气和无强对流天气时的季节平均值，进行对流参数与强对流天气的相关性分析，获得了对流参数与强对流天气的相关系数；应用系统树聚类法将雷暴分为：东北低涡、蒙古冷涡、短波槽、副高边缘4种类型；将冰雹分为：西北气流、冷低槽、冷涡3种类型；将暴雨分为：冷锋、深槽、低涡东移、小高切变、副高东撤等5种类型。在每一种强对流天气型下，选择不同的对流参数进行了试验，获得了不同天气型下基于对流参数的强对流潜势预报指标及其临界值。

Statistics and Potential Forecasting of the Severe Convective Weather in Shanxi Province

First, the average value of some factors was calculated when there was or not strong convective weather in the modern short - term or short - term weather approaching forecasting. Then the correlation coefficient was obtained between the convection parameters and the strong convective weather by the correlation analysis between convection parameters and strong convective weather. By clustering method thunderstorms will be divided into： the northeast vortex, Mongolia cold vortex, short - wave trough, the subtropical high four kinds of edge types and the hail will be divided into： the north - west flow, cold trough, three kinds of types of cold vortex; will rain is divided into： a cold front, deep, low vortex eastward, small high shear, the Deputy High East withdraw 5 types. In each type of severe convective weather, choose a different trial convection parameters obtained under different weather model parameters based on strong convection convection forecasting potential indicators and their thresholds.