| 一次突发性暴雨的诊断分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙伟.一次突发性暴雨的诊断分析[J].山西气象,2003(2):12-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省长治市气象局 山西长治046000
(张红英，魏建军，刘耀文)，山西省长治市气象局 山西长治046000(张平) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对长治、沁县等11个测站点的1960年至1995年36a的3月至8月逐月降水资料的统计分析，根据旱月出现的个数，发生的月份，干旱的程度，持续的时间和对农业生产的危害程度，将长治地区的春旱和夏旱各分了5个等级，从中寻找春夏2季干旱发生的规律。并用最优子集回归方法建立了春夏2季降水预报方程，对长治地区春夏2季降水定量预报进行了初步研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱 分析预报 降水量预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2003)02-0012-04 |
Analysis of Drought's Origin and Its Forecast in Changzhi Area |
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| Zhang Hongying,Wei Jianjun,Liu Yaowen,Zhang Ping.Analysis of Drought''''s Origin and Its Forecast in Changzhi Area[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2003(2):12-15. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Hongying Wei Jianjun Liu Yaowen Zhang Ping |
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| Abstract: | By statistic analysis of the precipitation data of 11 stations each month from March to August for 36 years from 1960 to 1995 in Changzi,according to the months number of drought,which month,arid degree,duration and the harm degree to agricultural production,this paper divided spring drought and summer drought into 5 grades from which to seek the rule of drought happening in spring and summer.And it has established the precipitation forecast equation of spring and summer with the most superior subset regress method and has studied preliminary the precipitation quota forecast of spring and summer in Changzhi. |
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| Keywords: | drought analysis forecast precipitation forecast |
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