African climate variability in the satellite era

Interannual fluctuations in rainfall and ocean-atmosphere fields over and around Africa were studied in the satellite era of 1979–2007 using singular value decomposition. The leading modes of rainfall variability in GPCP satellite-gauge merged fields include a leading mode over central Africa, two modes of marine origin in the Gulf of Guinea and Eastern Africa, and two sub-tropical modes over the Sahel and Southern Africa. This differs from earlier gauge-based studies that tend to isolate three leading modes over western, eastern, and southern Africa. In the sea-surface temperature, sea-level pressure and upper wind fields, ENSO signals dominate the leading modes. However, for the low-level wind field, a trough circulation over the southeast Atlantic – Kalahari is the leading mode. It demonstrates predictive potential when cross-correlated with rainfall at 6- to 12-month lead time. Based on continuous filtered data, the value of various indices and the predictability of different zones are examined. The Sahel achieves the highest rank followed by the Congo and southern zones in the next tier. The Guinea and East African rains, which peak in the March-to-May season, appear least predictable. The seasonal rainfall is shown to modulate economic growth rate, and multi-variate predictive algorithms are tested at 6-month lead time.