| 区域气候自忆预测模式的计算方案及其结果 |
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| 引用本文： | 封国林,曹鸿兴.区域气候自忆预测模式的计算方案及其结果[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(4):470-477. |
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| 作者姓名： | 封国林 曹鸿兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.扬州大学理学院物理系!扬州225002(封国林)，中国气象科学研究院!北京100081(曹鸿兴，魏凤英) |
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| 摘 要： | 区域气候预测的自忆模式是由描写温度、降水变化的差分-积分方程构成的。文中推导了用EOF展开的预测方程组，给出了该方程组的数值计算方案和递推格式。运用我国1951~1992年的月温度、降水场和区域500 hPa高度场格点资料，对6~8月汛期预测作了回报试验，结果表明该模式的预测能力是很高的。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域气候 预测模式 记忆 数值计算 |
Predicting Regional Climate with Self-memorial Model and Its Results |
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| Feng Guolin.Predicting Regional Climate with Self-memorial Model and Its Results[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1999,10(4):470-477. |
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| Authors: | Feng Guolin |
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| Institution: | 1.1) (Department of Physics, Yanzhou University, Yangzhou 225002); 2) (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | A self memorial model for regional climate prediction is derived on the basis of the self memorization principle of atmosphere.It is composed of difference integration equations with variables of surface temperature, precipitation and height at 500 hPa. The hindcasts of the temperature and precipitation in summer for the lead time from 1951 to 1992 are made.It is shown that the prediction skill of the model is quite well,nevertheless,a new approach of the climate prediction is demonstrated. |
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| Keywords: | Regional climate Prediction model Memorization Numerical calculation |
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