El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季增强型和减弱型及其对中国夏季旱涝的影响

根据El Ni?o和La Ni?a发生以后冬季赤道东太平洋海温距平的月际差定义了El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季增强型和冬季减弱型, 讨论了El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季增强型和减弱型冬、春、夏季大气环流、东亚季风及我国夏季降水和旱涝分布的特征.我国夏季降水和旱涝有明显差异的四种不同分布型可能与冬季所处ENSO循环的不同阶段以及大气环流和东亚季风对它的不同响应有关.提出了从El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季不同型→大气环流和东亚季风→我国夏季降水和旱涝分布型的物理统计概念模型.

Influences of Winter-strengthen Pattern and Winter-weaken Pattern of el and La on Drought/flood in Summer over China

According to the inter-monthly SSTA variation during winter in equatorial East Pacific after the occurrings of E1 and La onset, the winter-strengthen pattern and winter-weaken pattern of E1 and La are defined. The characteristics of the general in winter, spring and summer, East Asian monsoon, Summer rainfall and distrbution of drought/flood in China are discussed. It is shown that the four kinds of patterns for summer rainfall and drought/flood in China could be associated with different phases of ENSO cycle during winter, and with different responses of the general circulation and East Asian monsoon to that. Finally, a physics concept pattern is proposed about the rainfall distribution patterns in summer over China which are associated with different patterns of E1 and La in winter as well as the general circulation and the East Asian monsoon.