我国现有短期气候业务预测方法综述

对我国短期气候业务预测方法的综合分析表明 :我国现有的短期气候业务预测经验和统计方法仍是主要的 ;物理因子和前兆强信号结合天气气候学分析的概念预测模型方法在业务预测中发挥重要作用 ;动力模式预测方法在业务预测中取得一定效果 .随着动力模式的进一步发展 ,短期气候业务预测将逐步走向以动力模式客观预报为指导预报的新阶段

REVIEW OF THE METHODS FOR OPERATIONAL SHORT-RANGE CLIMATE PREDICTION IN CHINA

Investigation on the methods of operational short range climate prediction in China shows that the empirical and statistical methods are still dominant in operational forecasts. In recent years, due to the development of the theories on short range climate change and prediction, the physical conceptual models for prediction, which is based mainly on physical factors, strong precursor signals and synoptic climatological analysis, play an important role in the operational forecasts. The importance of the dynamical numerical models in the operational forecasts has been strengthened which led to some practical achievements. With the development of dynamical models, the operational short range climate prediction will enter a new stage in which objective forecasts of dynamical models become the guidance forecasts.