近年来我国农业气象灾害预报方法研究概述

概述了近年来我国农业气象灾害预报方法研究的进展，介绍了当前正在探讨的一些新技术，并就今后发展的若干关键技术问题提出一些看法。指出①我国农业气象灾害预报方法基本以数理统计模型为主。近年来在多种统计方法的应用、气候模式与农业气象模式结合、信息技术的应用、作物生长模拟模型的应用等方面取得了一些成果。但总体上说，农业气象灾害预报研究还不很成熟。②当前农业气象灾害预报应在指标的针对性，统计模型因子的物理概念和生物物理机理、数学模型和资料处理方法以及基于作物生长模拟模型的农业气象灾害预报方法等方面加强研究。③多学科交叉、多种预报方法结合、长中短期预报相结合、动态预报和补充订正相结合、卫星遥感动态监测信息与预警模式相结合是开展农业气象灾害预报的有效途径。建立预警业务系统，开展预警服务势在必行。

Review of the Progress in Methods of Agrometeorological Disaster Prediction in China

Investigation of the progress in methods of agrometeorological disaster prediction in China in recent years is made, some new methods and techniques are introduced, and some comments are presented. It is concluded that: ① At present the statistical models are the major approaches to predict the agrometeorological disasters; recently some new methods and techniques are used, including improvement of statistical models, combination between climate models and agrometeorological models as well as application of crop growth simulation models. In general the research of agrometeorological disaster prediction is not very satisfied. ② Attention should be paid to determination of index, physical mechanism and agricultural meaning of predictors and processing methods of mathematics models, as well as prediction method based on crop simulation models. ③ It is the effective approach for agrometeorological disaster prediction to synthesize different disciplines, multi-prediction methods, multi-time scale of predictions and to combine prediction models with monitoring information by remote sensing. The operational early warning system of agrometeorological disaster prediction should be set up.