9414 号热带气旋移动路径异常影响因子的数值研究

文章运用一个10层原始方程模式对9414号热带气旋（DOUG）（下称TC）的异常路径进行了数值模拟，对该TC路径异常的主要原因作了探讨，并在数值模拟基础上研究了各因素在TC移动中所起作用的大小。结果表明:环境流场演变是造成该TC移动路径突变的最主要原因，而TC自身结构对其移动突变的影响相对较小。

A Numerical Study on Factors Affecting Unusual Motion of TC 9414 (DOUG)

Based on the numerical simulation of TC 9414, which moved in an anomalous track, by using a 10-level primitive equation model, the main causes for the TC unusual motion are studied. The role of each factor played in TC motion is studied based upon the numerical model as well. The results show that the evolution of environmental flow is the most important cause that leads to the abrupt change of TC moving track, and the structure of TC itself has small effect on its motion