1960~2000年黄河流域太阳总辐射气候变化规律研究

运用数据集群技术，在黄河流域建立了用日照百分率拟合太阳总辐射的不同时空尺度估算式，对比分析了不同数据集群下总辐射的拟合精度。利用逆距离加权插值法，将获得的黄河流域及其周边35个日射站1~12月总辐射拟合的经验系数进行空间内插，获得了黄河流域1~12月总辐射拟合经验系数的空间分布。结合黄河流域及其周边164个常规气象站日照百分率观测资料，对黄河流域1960~2000年太阳总辐射进行了计算，分析了其气候变化的时空分布规律。结果表明:黄河流域近年来太阳总辐射呈下降趋势，在季节上主要表现在夏季和冬季。

THE CLIMATIC CHANGE OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION OVER THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN DURING 1960-2000

A series of global solar radiation models of different temporal and spatial scales were developed using the technique of data integration. The accuracy of different models was analyzed thoroughly. The empirical coefficients of monthly single station models, belonging to 35 solar observation stations distributed within and surround the Yellow River Basin, were extended spatially by Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation Method. By virtue of the spatial distribution of coefficients for global solar radiation simulation as well as the relative sunshine duration data observed from 164 convention meteorological stations, the global solar radiation of the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2000 were estimated and their climatic change tendency were analyzed in detail. The results show that the global solar radiation is significantly decreased, especially in the seasons of summer and winter.