| 东北区夏季月降水数值产品释用预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张立祥,陈力强,刘文明,李辑,张凯.东北区夏季月降水数值产品释用预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):348-354. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张立祥 陈力强 刘文明 李辑 张凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳中心气象台, 沈阳 110015 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用卡尔曼滤波法对国家气候中心的T63动力延伸预报场进行误差订正, 将订正后的预报场用于基于天气系统特征定性判断与相似离度指数定量相似相结合的降水预报模型, 制作东北区51个站点的定量的月降水预报, 并对1996~1998年夏季月降水进行了预报试验, 试验效果较好.
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| 关 键 词： | 动力释用 误差订正 降水分型 月降水预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1999-02-01 |
Application of the Numerical Products of T63L16 Model for Predicting Monthly Precipitation in Summer over Northeast China |
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| Zhang Lixiang,Chen Liqiang,Liu Wenming,Li Ji,Zhang Kai.Application of the Numerical Products of T63L16 Model for Predicting Monthly Precipitation in Summer over Northeast China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000,11(3):348-354. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Lixiang Chen Liqiang Liu Wenming Li Ji Zhang Kai |
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| Institution: | Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110015 |
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| Abstract: | WT5BZ]The Kalman filter method is used to correct the errors of the predicted fields of the T63L16 model of the National Climate Center. The corrected fields are applied to a precipitation forecasting model which combines the qualitative analysis, based on characteristics of weather systems, with the quantitative analog, based on the analog discrete degree indexes, and the precipitation of 51 stations in Northeast China in the summer of 1996-1998 is made. The results show that its prediction performance is good.WT5BZ] WT5HZ] |
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| Keywords: | Dynamic application Error correction Precipitation pattern Monthly precipitation Prediction |
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