| 多层加权平均引导台风路径预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王长甫,余荣华,刘福晓,董克勤.多层加权平均引导台风路径预报方法[J].应用气象学报,1991,2(4):434-439. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王长甫 余荣华 刘福晓 董克勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.海司气象室
(王长甫，余荣华，刘福晓)，国家气象局气象科学研究院(董克勤) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对较多实例的计算分析，建立了应用地面—500 hPa和地面—300 hPa气压加权引导气流的台风路径预报方程。预报试验表明，它们对中、低纬度台风移动有较好的应用前景，文中对这一方法的依据和预报试验结果进行了比较详细的讨论。
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A Multiple-layer Weighted Mean Steering Method of the Typhoon Track Forecast |
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| Institution: | 1) (The Meteorological Office of Naval Headquarters); 2) (Academy of Meteorological Science, SMA) |
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| Abstract: | According to the calculation and analysis of many cases, four sets of regression equations of typhoon track forecast, which are derived from the weighted mean steering flows of the pressures from surface to 500 hPa and surface to 300 hPa levels, are established. The forecast experiments show that the equations have better prospect for predicting for predicting typhoon tracks in middle and lower latitudes. The bases and results of the forecast method are discussed in detail in the paper. |
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