| 江淮下游6～7月雨量趋势的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋全荣,丁伟钰.江淮下游6～7月雨量趋势的预测[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋全荣 丁伟钰 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学大气科学系 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对１９５１～１９９４年６～７月江淮下游（６站平均）雨量距平进行小波变换，结果表明：该区域６～７月雨量存在着两个明显的周期振荡，一个是２８～２９年的长周期，另一个是８～９年的中周期．文中分析了两个周期的不同位相所对应的雨量特征，提出６～７月雨量趋势的预测思路，预测结果与实况对比表明，对雨量偏少年及连续两个干旱年有较好的预测能力
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| 关 键 词： | 小波变换 雨量趋势 周期振荡 预测 |
PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATION TENDENCY IN JUNE-JULY IN THE YANGTZE AND HUAI RIVER DOWNSTREAM AREA |
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| Jiang Quanrong.PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATION TENDENCY IN JUNE-JULY IN THE YANGTZE AND HUAI RIVER DOWNSTREAM AREA[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1999,10(Z1). |
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| Authors: | Jiang Quanrong |
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| Abstract: | Using the wavelet transformation to analyse precipitation anomaly in June-July in the Yangtze and Huai River downstream area, two obvious period oscillations are found.One is 28-29 years long period,another is 8-9 years period.The features of precipitation in June-July corresponding to different phases in two periods are analysed, and a train of thought about prediction in this area is presented. Comparing the prediction with the real shows that this method has better predicting ability for negative anomaly year and two continuous drought years. |
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| Keywords: | Wavelet transformation Precipitation tendency Period oscillation Prediction |
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