我国降水和气温的分级概率时空分布特征

采用全国160站1951—2009年月降水和气温资料，分析了短期气候预测业务评分办法中六级要素概率时空分布特征，并以1月、7月为代表获得了不同地区、不同级别降水和气温异常发生频率。结果表明:降水和气温的六级异常分布存在显著空间不均匀性和年代际变化特征，1980—2009年，北方降水在1月出现特少、特多等级和7月出现特少、偏少等级的概率较大，南方降水出现6个等级的概率基本相同；全国气温在1月和7月出现正常略低、正常略高和偏高等级的概率较大。1980—2009年与1951—1979年相比，全国1月降水为特多、偏多等级和7月降水为偏少等级的站数明显增加，全国1月气温为正常略高、偏高和特高等级的站数明显增加，呈明显的年代际变化特征。

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Probability Classification of Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies over China

Based on the standard of the probability classification definition and scoring method in short term climate prediction operation,analysis is conducted on six-level probability classification of monthly precipitation and temperature anomalies in January and July.Spatial and temporal distributions are obtained through the monthly precipitation and temperature data at 160 stations in China,which are operationally used by National Climate Center of CMA.The six levels are defined as much more than normal(L1), mo...