天气预报的业务技术进展

该文总结回顾了中央气象台近年来的天气预报业务技术进展。天气预报质量的历史演变显示了预报业务水平的提高, 这种业务能力的提高既反映了预报技术的发展, 也带来了天气预报业务的变化。对业务天气预报中各种预报技术应用进展的分析表明:数值预报在天气预报业务能力提高中发挥着重要的基础性作用; 同时, 基于对不同尺度天气影响系统发展演变过程深入认识的基础上, 天气学的预报方法依然是预报业务中的重要技术方法; 动力诊断预报已成为灾害性天气预报中的重要手段之一, 数值预报产品的解释应用是实现气象要素精细定量预报的技术途径。

An Overview of the Development of Weather Forecasting

The performance of weather forecasting on the precipitation and typhoon movement in recent decades is analyzed.The results show that the forecasting skills have been obviously improved.In order to illustrate these kinds of achievements,the recent progress on operational numerical weather prediction models with the methodologies used in weather analysis and forecasting are discussed.The improvement of the forecasting skills mainly relies on the progress of the numerical predication model.The updated global spectral model with new cloud physics and high resolution is proved to be with good performance in anomaly correlation coefficient at 500 hPa over the Northern Hemisphere and higher scores in precipitation output.Satellite data assimilation is proved to be much efficient in model skills' improvement.Moreover,the synoptic analysis is still playing an important role in the routine weather forecasting based on the scientific understanding of weather related synoptic systems and the circulation patterns.The synoptic concept models on macro-scale weather systems and heavy rainfall related weather systems are derived from rainband movement analyses and torrential rain researches.The dynamic diagnosis and prognosis are coming to be important means in severe weather forecasting.An ingredient method is developed and used as a routine technique in heavy rainfall forecasting and convective weather forecasting.The statistic interpretation of model outputs can efficiently improve the routinely direct weather elements forecasting output.It is also a technical way to realize the high temporal and spatial resolution forecasting for temperatures and precipitations.