| 利用一维时间序列重建动力系统的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭永清,朱育峰,严绍瑾.利用一维时间序列重建动力系统的初步研究[J].应用气象学报,1993(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭永清 朱育峰 严绍瑾 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院 南京210044
(彭永清，朱育峰)，南京气象学院 南京210044(严绍瑾) |
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| 基金项目： | 《长期天气预报理论和方法研究》项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对月平均气温一维时间序列作相空间拓展,和假定相空间状态变量随时间的演化方程含有线性和非线性二次项,再根据拓展后的资料进行拟合,利用最小二乘法求出各项系数,保留其方差贡献大的项,以重建动力系统.实际计算结果表明,重建的低阶动力系统有可能对月平均气温所表征的短期气候演化过程的非线性特性作出描写.
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| 关 键 词： | 月平均气温 时间序列 相空间拓展 动力系统 |
A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A ONE-DIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES |
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| Peng Yongqing Zhu Yufeng Yan Shaojin.A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A ONE-DIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1993(Z1). |
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| Authors: | Peng Yongqing Zhu Yufeng Yan Shaojin |
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| Abstract: | The time-dependent equations of the phase space state variables are obtained,as-suming that the linear and quadratic nonlinear terms are contained in the system,by us-ing the phase space continuation of the 1-D time series of monthly mean temperature,and followed by the fitting of the treated data.In order to reconstruct the related dy-namic system,the coefficients of equations must be found by use of the least squaremethod with the terms of greater variance contribution retained.The results show thatthe obtained low-order system is likely to describe the nonlinear properties in the short-range climate variation characterized by monthly mean temperature. |
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| Keywords: | Monthly mean temperature Time series Phase space continuation Dynamic system |
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